Monday, September 12, 2011

12 Team Draft #1

This is the fourth year of this league.  It's a bunch of listeners of a podcast about sports videogames, called 4th String, and the host of the show.  I've actually run the league the past three years (which is a pain in the ass because people drop out every year and I have to find replacements).  I even won the championship 2 out of 3 years ('08, '10 and got 3rd in '09).

Because this league 12 teams, not 20, the teams have a ton more depth.

So here's the entire draft.  And here's who I ended up with:

Round 1; Pick #5 - Ray Rice (RB)
- I was pumped to have gotten the 5th pick.  I've never had a top 5 pick in the league.  I hoped Rice would fall to me, but wasn't sure it would happen due to uncertainty about a few of the other top players.  If he'd have been taken I'd have probably gone with Andre Johnson or LeSean McCoy.
Round 2; Pick #20 - Vincent Jackson (WR)
- I was hopeful that Calvin Johnson (from now on referred to as Megatron, as fantasy owners know him) would be around, but he was taken 16th overall.  Lame.  I went with Jackson because he's a top-flight receiver and has Philip Rivers throwing to him (I despise Rivers, but they love to chuck the ball in San Diego).
Round 3; Pick #29 - Matt Forte (RB)
- This is the 1st time I had not drafted two top tier WRs.  I was considering Steven Jackson, DeSean Jackson, and Forte with this pick.  I was pleasantly surprised that both Jackson, Steven and Forte had fallen into the 3rd round.  Luckily only one of the 3 guys I liked were left, so I had no decision to make.  Forte at pick #29 is great value.
Round 4; Pick #44 - Jermichael Finley (TE)
- I might have been able to wait one more round to grab Finley, but I wanted to make sure I got him on my team.  I think he'll have a huge year.
Round 5; Pick #53 - Brandon Lloyd (WR)
- I wanted to get my 2nd WR with this pick.  Lloyd was the #1 receiver in fantasy last season, but he'd been a disappointment ever year prior; it's thought to be an aberration and this is why he's not being taken in the top 20.  I really would've liked Kenny Britt to fall to this spot, but he was gone with pick #47.
Round 6; Pick #68 - Fred Jackson (RB)
- I wasn't looking for a particular position here.  I would've liked Tim Hightower (#63), Brandon Marshall (#64), or Auquan Boldin (#65) just slightly more, but Jackson is a solid back-up RB (as long as C.J. Spiller doesn't cut into his touches).
Round 7; Pick #77 - Joseph Addai (RB)
- Mike Tolbert was taken at #72 and there wasn't anyone else I was too excited about at the time so I went with Addai.  Like I wrote in my 20 team draft blog, he's a risk (less so because this isn't a 20 team league), but could payoff.
Round 8; Pick #92 - Willis McGahee (RB)
- This was my 3rd straight RB drafted.  I'm not sure why I did this, but I like each of the guys I took and it gave me good depth at RB.  McGahee is supposed to get the goal line touches in Denver and the Broncos new coach, John Fox likes to run the ball.  Also, he's behind oft injured Knowshon Moreno and he could be the starter at some point.
Round 9; Pick #101 - Packers D/ST
- It's not the best idea to take D/STs before the later rounds because, statistically, it's hard to predict who the good defenses will be.  However, the Packers are a great defense.  They get after the QB and have an awesome secondary.  I probably should've taken a WR here (I only had two at this point), but I wanted to own the Pack on at least one of my teams.  I also would've considered Matt Stafford, but he was grabbed with pick #95.
Round 10; Pick #116 - Jacoby Ford (WR)
- It was going to be either Robert Meachem or Ford here.  Probably Meachem, but he was taken with pick #111.  The plan was take Meachem at #116 and Ford a round later at #125.  Oh well.
Round 11; Pick #125 - Donovan McNabb (QB)
- Since the Meachem/Ford plan didn't work out, it became 'get a QB' time for me.  I planned on taking another QB to pair with McNabb and just go with the better matchup.  McNabb doesn't throw too many interceptions so his limited upside (the Vikings are a run-first team with Adrian Peterson) isn't a problem.
Round 12; Pick #140 - Davone Bess (WR)
- I needed a receiver and Davone Bess is a decent bye-week fill-in.  He's a possession guy and could get you 60, 70 yards and maybe a TD on a given day.
Round 13; Pick #149 - Eric Decker (WR)
- I'll be honest, I'm looking at my picks and I don't know why I took Decker here.  I think I was worried that he'd be drafted since there are a few Broncos fans in our league.  Nate Burleson was taken with pick #145.  If I remember correctly I wanted him, but I really didn't like any of the receivers 'rated' around this spot so I took Decker and his upside.
Round 14; Pick #164 - DeMarco Murray (RB)
- He's behind Felix Jones on the Cowboys depth chart, but Jones is frequently banged up; the rookie might see some substantial work at some point.
Round 15; Pick #173 - Colt McCoy (QB)
- I'm looking at my draft now and I know that I wanted McCoy as the other QB I would pair with McNabb, but I think that the Decker and McCoy picks should've been switched.
Round 16; Pick #188 - Matt Bryant (K)
- He's the Falcons' kicker. They'll score a lot of points.  It stands to reason he will as well.  When in doubt, draft the kicker with the good offense.

So that's my drafted team and here's the link to my current team, Quantum of Fila.  Quantum of Solace came out the 1st year I joined and I thought it worked well with 'Fila' (which I wanted to incorporate into the name); and now I'm not getting rid of it because it's practically an institution (2 two time champ!).

I've owned Megatron the two years prior to this one and love having him on my team so I immediately worked a deal to get him.  My first offer was declined, but he came back at me with Megatron and Jimmy Graham for Ray Rice.  I already have Finley so I'm set at TE, but I'm going to trade Graham after someone gets hurt or if he blows up like I think he will.

I also made another trade that day.  One of the teams was really hurting for WRs so I offered him Lloyd and Addai for Ahmad Bradshaw and Pierre Thomas.  This is a completely even trade.  I needed to fill the Ray Rice-void on my team and having Megatron made Lloyd perfect trade bait.

I prefer how my team is constructed now more than the way it was just following the draft.

"Start the Commotion" - The Wiseguys

Sunday, September 11, 2011

My 20 Team Draft

I've always wanted to do a 20 team league.  Sadly, I don't have 20 friends that like fantasy football so this has never been a possibility.  Because of this I occasionally visit the ESPN.com fantasy message boards and look for deep leagues that are looking for replacement owners.  Luckily I finally found one for this season.

20 team leagues are about as deep as leagues featuring only offensive players can get.  If you have the #1 pick in a 20 team draft, your next pick won't be 'til pick #40.  That's how far the talent pool drops off after just your 1st two picks.  By the end of round #5, there will be 100 players gone.  In a draft like this, your final picks will be guys in the 3rd or 4th spot on the depth chart.  They may not see more than a few touches all year.  This places even more importance on the draft because being able to identify the sleepers becomes even more vital.

In a bye week in a normal league (10 or 12 teams) you might be able to expect your bye week replacement to get you around 10 points; depending on how deep your bench is, this might be higher.  A bye week replacement in a 20 team might, hopefully, get you 4 or 5 points.

It's kind of crazy.

Anyway, here's my drafted team (and a link to the whole draft).  Each team was able to keep up to 2 players. Mine had Michael Turner and Frank Gore so I obviously kept them:

Round 1; Pick #8 - Michael Turner (RB)
Round 2; Pick #28 - Frank Gore (RB)
Round 3; Pick #48 - Jermichael Finley (TE)
- This pick is a bit of a risk.  The standard thing to do here would likely be: take a QB (since a top QB will win you that position most weeks in a 20 team league), but 11 QBs had been kept so the best on the board was Josh Freeman.  I decided I wasn't taking a QB until later.  I also might have taken my 1st WR here, but I equate Finley to basically a very productive WR.  He was on fire last year before he was injured.  He's a matchup nightmare and the only other player I would've considered was Felix Jones and he was taken the pick before mine.
Round 4; Pick #73 - Anquan Boldin (WR)
- I was looking at Boldin, Kenny Britt, Brandon Marshall, and to a lesser extent Percy Harvin.  I preferred the formers, because they are all big receivers that have the potential to catch 10 balls on a given Sunday.  Harvin has the return ability in his favor though.  Anyway, Britt was taken at #62 and Marshall at #66 so only Boldin was still around.  I lucked out and got my 1st WR.  Boldin had a down year last year, but I expect him to bounce back.
Round 5; Pick #88 - Joseph Addai (RB)
- This could either be a very smart pick, or an incredibly dumb one.  Addai is a serious injury risk, but he's a starter and can score TDs.  I was hoping Mike Tolbert or Tim Hightower might still be around, but Hightower was taken at #77 and Tolbert was taken right before me at #87 (the same dude that took Felix Jones at #47.  Ughhh).  At least Addai starts when he's in and he looked good during the preseason, if that means anything.  I was really hoping that Matt Stafford might be available, but some tard took him at #51.
Round 6; Pick #113 - Robert Meachem (WR)
- Around here I was thinking QB, maybe Sam Bradford, but he went at #102.  So I decided that it was time to take my 2nd WR.  Meachem has battled injuries for the past couple years, but he got the skills to be a top WR.  He's a favorite sleeper of mine.
Round 7; Pick #128 - Jacoby Ford (WR)
- Here's another sleeper of mine.  In mock drafts I had done on ESPN.com Ford was going somewhere before pick #120 typically.  When I took Meachem I had accepted that Ford would likely not make it 'til my next pick.  So I was happy, maybe even giddy, that he was still on the board.  If he hadn't been around still, I would've likely taken a QB here, but, again, I put it off.  Ford should start for Oakland and he's blazing fast.  So in a bye week, or if someone gets injured, he's got the talent to break for a long TD at any time and be a good fill-in.
Round 8; Pick #153 - Nate Burleson (WR)
- By this point I was in best available mode.  I still needed a QB, but 23 QBs had been drafted by the start of Round 8; it really didn't matter which one I took.  They were all the same, production-wise, at this point.  Of course, by waiting I was risking them all being taken (which almost happened. More on that in a bit).  The only one I would've considered taking was Ryan Fitzpatrick and, once again, he was taken mere picks prior to mine.  Anyway, I considered a D/ST here too, but the ones I liked (Packers; #122, Ravens; #133, Falcons; #141) were all gone so I was just looking at WRs and RBs.  I was surprised Burleson was still out there at this pick.  He's looked great in the preseason.  I figured someone would've overvalued him and taken him earlier.  He should be a solid fill-in for injuries or bye weeks (maybe even a starter if something were to happen to Calvin Johnson, Megatron).
Round 9; Pick #168 - Ben Tate (RB)
- I remember being very frustrated around this time.  Jason Campbell was still on the board when I took Burleson and I was hoping to draft him come this pick.  He was drafted at #160.  Ughhh.  That meant the only QBs left, that I could tolerate owning (barely), were Matt Hasselbeck, Chad Henne, and Alex Smith.  Nearly every team had a QB at this point so I was confident that I could wait just one more round (25 picks 'til my next pick) and one of the three would still be around.  It came down to Bernard Berrian and Ben Tate here.  Berrian had shown some flashes of chemistry with Donovan McNabb during the preseason, but I decided on Tate.  Fantasy analysts love him and, if Arian Foster goes down with an injury, he will have a good opportunity to start.
Round 10; Pick #193 - Chad Henne (QB)
- Hasselbeck was taken after my pick in Round 9, but both Henne and Smith were still there (as were Rex Grossman and John Beck, but I'm not sure that either will start the entire season so I didn't consider them).  I went with Henne since he has Marshall and a solid possession WR in Davone Bess and more job security... but just barely.
Round 11; Pick #208 - Eric Decker (WR)
- Honestly, had Alex Smith still been around I would've taken him here and just alternated between him and Henne, but he wasn't.  Decker is another sleeper I wanted to make sure was on my team.  I probably took him a tad early, but better safe than sorry (I likely should have adopted this strategy for QB).  I think he could catch a good number of TDs this year.
Round 12; Pick #233 - Stevan Ridley (RB)
- Another sleeper, but only if Benjarvus Green-Ellis gets injured.  He looked good in the preseason and the Patriots use the platoon RB strategy so he might have value.
Round 13; Pick #248 - Jabar Gaffney (WR)
- Just a best available pick.  I would've taken Arrelious Benn, but he was taken at pick #243.
Round 14; Pick #273 - Vince Young (QB)
- This could payoff big.  He's the back up to Vick in Philly, which means he'll probably play at least one game due to Vick being injured.  He's looked solid in the preseason and now he's in Philly where they groom QBs.
Round 15; Pick #288 - Titans D/ST
- All that was left to do was pick a D/ST and a kicker.  I really wanted the Broncos D/ST, but they were gone just pick before mine again (this was a recurring theme in this draft).  I think they could be decent this year.  At least they will get a lot of sacks with Elvis Dumervil (back from a season-ending injury) and rookie Von Miller.  Anyway, I decided on the Titans D/ST.  I think they will have a decent year.
Round 16; Pick #313 - Matt Prater (K)
- Nothing to really analyze here.  He's a solid kicker and can hit some long kicks.  No brainer.

So that's my team.  I came out of the draft awful at QB, but solid everywhere else.  I'm not a huge fan of Michael Turner so I started shopping him immediately for a QB.  People constantly think they are being screwed over so pulling trades off is difficult.  I wanted to trade for Stafford, but that owner is a moron; so I didn't even try.  I ended up putting out two trades: Turner and Henne for Fitzpatrick and Beanie Wells, Turner and Henne for Colt McCoy and Vincent Jackson.  I preferred the later.  Of course, the Fitzpatrick/Wells trade is accepted.  It's a fine trade.  Fitzpatrick is a decent fantasy QB (better than Henne) and Wells is the hands down starter in Arizona so I'm ok with it.  I should've waited for the McCoy/Jackson trade to be accepted or declined, but oh well.

Here's the link to my team if you'd like to check it out: Snitchin' Bubs (my team name is a Wire thing so if you haven't watched the show, you won't get it).

"Game Theory" - The Roots

Saturday, September 10, 2011

I Can't Think of Anything Clever to Title This Blog

It's been nearly a month since I wrote my last one. I suppose I haven't had much to write about lately. Things are much less interesting and active since I left Bloomington. I have far too much time on my hands.

 I need an idea...

... and a job.

Edit:

I know what I can do with my next blog. I can talk about my fantasy football teams and why I drafted the players I did. Yeah, that might work.

- In Other News -

I went to see Contagion today. Damn good movie.

Eerie, suspenseful, and, most importantly, smart. If you go see it, which I strongly suggest you do, make note of how many times people cough during the movie. I can bet that barely anyone will. I heard only one cough throughout the entire film... and people cough all the time during movies! Whether to clear their throat or if they're sick (I'd suggest not seeing this movie while sick. I'm sure you'd get dirty looks).

Maybe I'm weird for noticing this, but I think it's interesting and kind of funny.

Edit:

I watched the 1st season of the HBO series How to Make it in America the other day. I had a good time watching it. I'll liken it to Entourage in that it plays up the late-twenties, party lifestyle, but from the perspective of people far less better off.

And Kid Cudi is in the cast, which is pretty cool.

"Tighten Up" - The Black Keys